Zoom pre-election client briefing

National polls show Biden leading Trump by twice Clinton’s 2016 margin, but polls in swing states are much narrower, and voters report shyness about admitting Trump support. Trump enjoys an enthusiasm advantage, manifested in his best approval ratings, and strong GOP voter registration and polling with minorities. Our model shows a narrow Trump victory. Markets view Trump as a known commodity, and pro-growth. Biden is an unknown, with some policy positives, but overwhelming negatives. We think markets expect Trump to win, or the GOP to at least hold the Senate. A Biden win with Democratic Senate control is the most bearish outcome. Having the election over will be a relief for markets either way, and markets will be shocked if a disputed election drags on for weeks or months. The result will only be known on election night if Biden wins; a Trump win will take at least a week. In a deeply disputed election, Supreme Court interventions may trigger urban unrest that could be a barrier to completing the V-shaped economic recovery.