The Finance 202: The coronavirus economy is already hurting Trump's reelection chances, economists say

A model assembled by Trend Macrolytics — using six measures of macroeconomic and personal financial wellbeing to predict every winner in presidential elections dating back to 1952 — still predicts a Trump victory by a wide margin.

Donald Luskin, the firm’s chief investment officer, notes the model has only incorporated two variables that updated recently, oil prices and payrolls, and those “have basically been a push.” 

But that will likely change if a recession persists deeper into the calendar this year. “It’s just a race to see how quickly we can end this man-made recession and put people back to work,” Luskin says.

Until that picture becomes clearer, he says forecasters should operate with a healthy dose of humility. “The nature of the emergency itself brings up issues of personal safety and gets people’s minds operating in ways that are unusual,” he says. “I have no idea how exogenous factors the model can’t account for could influence the election. I’d be a fool not to admit those uncertainties.”