Insights for action, for global investors

Clients, please enter here

Most Recent Commentary

Open Borders Produced the Biden Economic Boom
Donald L. Luskin
Wall Street Journal
Friday, May 24, 2024
Why doesn’t he get credit for strong growth? In part because he can’t defend his immigration policies.

Most Recent Media Appearance

Stock Market Says America Will Be OK
Wall Street Journal
Monday, October 14, 2024

Don Luskin of Trend Macrolytics writes in a note to clients today:

"There have been highly volatile days as the presidential election landscape has chaotically emerged. But stocks have been in a less than 14% trading range despite what remains a maximally uncertain outcome poised at 50/50 in the polls, the prediction markets and the models – with both candidates continually improvising ill-considered economic policy proposals. With stocks at all-time highs as Trump’s polling has recently improved, it may be that markets are signaling a slight preference for Trumponomics. House control is 50/50, also. If Senate control were 50/50, the joint probability of one-party control of government by either party would be 25%."

But Mr. Luskin argues that Senate control isn’t 50/50. In his view Republican Senate control is now assured “with West Virginia and Montana in the bag.” He writes:

"The joint probability of one-party control remains 25%, but it can only be by Republicans. That opens the possibility for the extension of expiring provisions of the 2017 tax cuts. But there remains a 75% probability of gridlock, pointing to general stability of economic policy no matter who wins the presidency."