What you're not hearing about inflation and this afternoon's FOMC

Markets expect the Summary of Economic Projections at today's FOMC to show a funds rate of 4-1/4%, implying a November hike of 75 bp and a December hike of 50 bp. Why raise it from where it was at the June FOMC, at 3-3/8% in the prior SEP, considering that inflation has fallen since then in almost every dimension? Powell claims to be "guided" by the data -- yet continued hikes as inflation falls would seem to be ignoring the data. It also would ignore a new political narrative from Biden that inflation as significantly cooled, which would ultimately risk the Fed's credibility. Markets are braced for what we see as a worst case SEP projection. We don't rule out a surprise on the dove-side.