How we predicted the October Hamas terror attacks, with Ambassador Alberto Fernandez

Just weeks before the deadly Hamas attack on Israel in October, MEMRI, the Middle East Media Research Institute, predicted the attack and predicted the unusual scope of Israel’s response. Ambassador Alberto Fernandez of MEMRI discussed how it monitors media and social media in the Middle East, in native languages, and uses them as “open source intelligence” to determine the intentions and future actions of governments and radical organizations. Israel will pacify Hamas in Gaza, but radical opposition strongholds will continue to exist and build strength in the West Bank, Lebanon and Yemen. The Houthis, in particular, are a very large population from which to recruit and train radical fighters, barely tapped so far. For Israel, this is therefore the first battle in a new wider war for survival. Iran is the puppetmaster here, and one of the objectives was to drive a wedge between Israel and potentially sympathetic Muslin nations such as Saudi Arabia. But Saudi, the UAE, Egypt and even Jordan hate and fear the radical Muslim revolutionaries Iran is supporting, and quietly support Israel in an attempt to suppress them. Israel understands the importance of eliminating Iran’s coming nuclear capability, and has shown a willingness in the past, in Iraq and Syria, to make pre-emptive strikes. But Iran has spent decades hardening and concealing potential targets, just as Hamas spent years building the tunnels from which they staged the October attack.