On March Jobs, a Powell Put, and a Recession Call
There’s no hard evidence of it, but it’s tough not to call for a recession from the tariff shock.
What you’re not hearing about how tariffs are taxes — and big new tariffs are big tax hikes
The Trump tariffs are the biggest tax hike in 43 years. But who pays? And what's the context?
Update to Strategic View
The Trump tariffs are a large tax shock at 0.85% of GDP. It is not clear who will pay the tax, but someone will, and tax hikes like this are not good for global growth. But it won't necessarily cause a recession. The TEFRA tax hike of 1982 was larger, and didn't. The 1993 Clinton tax hikes didn't either. The Trump tariff tax hikes will likely be offset with tax cuts in the reconciliation bill working its way through Congress. These may not be tax cuts structured ideally for growth, but they are cuts nevertheless. We are on high alert for recession-risk here, but we aren't pulling the trigger yet.