Markets aren’t focusing on it, but tariffs are back — and they are still anti-growth.
Update to Strategic View
US Macro
Last year’s tariff panic is a distant memory, but the Trump administration is gradually rebuilding the tariff wall that the Supreme Court struck down in February. The IEPPA tariffs were the largest tax increase since 1993 at 0.54% of GDP. With the new Section 301 tariffs, the impact is less at 0.4%, but still three quarters of where we were a year ago. And more 301 investigations are underway, with the administration promising more tariffs before the investigations are even completed. Net of all the bad effects and good effects, the tariffs in place today cost the average American household $900 per year and are reducing employment by 367,000 jobs. So far there has been no effect whatsoever on the US trade deficit in goods, the reduction of which was the main objective all along.