Global Real Rates and Yields

Global Real Rates and Yields
Friday, November 3, 2023
Real rates and yields are now positive everywhere but Japan (where nominal rates remain low) and the UK (where inflation remains high). Almost everywhere it's a new new normal (or probably to old normal back again).
Global Real Rates and Yields
Thursday, June 29, 2023
Weighted global real rates are now positive -- but still negative in the euro area, Japan and the UK. Real yields are still negative overall -- but that's because they are negative throughout the developed world, while positive throughout the developing world.
Global Real Rates and Yields
Wednesday, April 19, 2023
On a weighted global basis, short-term rates have now risen and inflation rates have now fallen enough to almost entirely close the gap -- the real interest rate is now only 43 bp below zero. 
Global Real Rates and Yields
Wednesday, November 16, 2022
Real rates remain sharply negative everywhere but Brazil. But long-term yields show a divided world: developed markets all still negative, emerging markets (with lower inflation rates) all positive.
Global Real Rates and Yields
Friday, October 21, 2022
It almost seems like a global sovereign credit crisis is brewing up, with rates and yields relentlessly rising everywhere. Yet based on contemporaneous trailing inflation statistics, real rates are positive only in Brazil, and real yields are positive only in Brazil, India and China.
Global Real Rates and Yields
Monday, October 3, 2022
Remember when everyone said that rising real interest rates post-pandemic would kill the economy? In most parts of the world, they've barely risen at all. Nominal yields are struggling to keep up with backward-looking contemporaneous inflation measures. So do you feel stimulated? If not, why not?
Global Real Rates and Yields
Friday, December 17, 2021
Global real rates and yields are now the lowest in the history of the data.
Global Real Rates and Yields
Friday, June 18, 2021
Inflation higher everywhere, rates and yields not. If you think the resulting drop in real yields to record or near-record levels is "stimulative," then you think it's a beautiful world.
Global Real Rates and Yields
Tuesday, January 12, 2021
Based on actual inflation, US real rates and yields are negative, and the lowest in the developed world. China is downright tight -- a global outlier. 
Global Real Rates and Yields
Thursday, March 19, 2020
Measured inflation is lagging, and is heading down. But real yields have been falling all year, and are at the lowest in the history of our data.

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