Shocker! The residential real estate market is supposed to be dead, dead, dead. But our Housing Transaction Value Aggregate has recovered back above the pre-pandemic trend for both new and existing homes. Meanwhile, another shocker: our Google Trends indices of interest in our esteemed presidential candidates shows that there is, in fact, no interest.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2024
Surprising resiliency in housing, with both the new homes and existing homes components of our Housing Transaction Value Index rising, despite little relief on mortgage rates and spreads.
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Thursday, January 25, 2024
Existing home transactions fall a bit, new home transactions rise a bit. The housing market is stabilizing at a surprisingly and delightfully high level. Meanwhile, new all-time highs for capital goods expenditures.
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Friday, December 22, 2023
Downticks in the aggregate transaction volume of both new and existing homes -- no surprise. But the new homes remain above the rising pre-pandemic trend.
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Monday, November 27, 2023
Our Housing Transaction Value Index ticks down again. The existing homes component is below the pre-pandemic trend now, but holding above the post-pandemic correction. Existing homes tick down on the month, but continue to boom, firmly above the pre-pandemic trend.
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Friday, October 27, 2023
A boom month for new home sales, but existing home sales dry up significantly in the face of high lending rates. The existing home market is much larger, so overall our transaction value index has fallen below the pre-pandemic trend. Still remarkably resilient, but a crack in the armor to be sure.
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Wednesday, September 27, 2023
New orders for capital goods ex-aircraft makes a new all-time high. Recessions should be made of sterner stuff. Maybe there's a reason why the 10-year yield is at 4.5% (and maybe it's a good thing -- more on that later).
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Thursday, August 24, 2023
The headlines have been all about a catastrophic pullback in housing. Uh... not. The TrendMacro Housing Value Aggregate is still above the pre-pandemic level and the pre-pandemic trend for both new and existing homes. This isn't the boom in the immediate aftermath of the re-opening from lockdowns, but this is a very healthy market by any measure -- all the more so given the penalty of high mortgage rates.
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Thursday, July 27, 2023
Non-defense cap goods orders eke out a new high. Supposedly it was a relief yesterday to learn that the Fed staff is no longer expecting a recession -- but with evidence like this in abundance all year, what made them expect one to begin with?
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Tuesday, June 27, 2023
The productivity-led boom lives! Orders for cap-goods (non-defense, ex-aircraft) rises to a new all-time high. That's the precursor of the precursor of continued growth. Meanwhile, housing activity -- both new and existing -- rises again, still above the pre-pandemic trends. So far at least, no landing!