Did we call it, or what? 3.3% real GDP growth for the quarter, steaming past the highest estimates and following an outright blow-out the previous quarter. Oh, wait, that's not even the best part. Price increases for gross domestic purchases were just 1.9%. Hint: that's below the Fed's target.
US GDP
US GDP
Thursday, October 26, 2023
At 4.9%, Q3 real GDP split the difference between the Atlanta Fed's model at 5.4%, and the consensus at 4.5%. By avoiding the dreaded 5-handle, maybe this keeps the Fed from imagining too much prosperity will cause inflation. But it's a boom. If you have to find something to be skeptical about, worry about strong inventory growth (but you can tell yourself that will buffer future inflation impulses).
US GDP
Thursday, July 27, 2023
What you're not hearing about this morning's GDP release is probably something the Fed isn't seeing in its willful blindness: inflation in gross domestic purchases is below target at 1.9% for Q2, down from 3.8% in Q1.
US GDP
Thursday, April 27, 2023
Q1 real GDP at 1.1% is a miss versus the consensus for 1.9%. Housing contracted slightly, but the big disappointment was inventories (if it weren't for their 2.3% decline, GDP growth would have been 3.4%). This doesn't mean inventories were heavily liquidated -- they weren't at all. They just ever so slightly reversed last quarter's strong pace of growth.
US GDP
Thursday, January 26, 2023
A new high for US real GDP, 5.1% above the pre-pandemic peak with no more people working to achieve it. GDP has grown 16.2% from the recession trough (given its severity, the historical trend would predict only 13.7%). Nice details in the quarter: inflation in gross domestic purchases ran only 3.2% at an annual rate, down from 4.8% in Q3. And nominal personal income grew 6.9%, up from 5.9%. No recession so far, that's for sure.
US GDP
Thursday, October 27, 2022
Let's see -- that's the best GDP quarter this year, and the only positive one. Maybe the Fed should crank interest rates even higher and we'll get even more improvement.
US GDP
Thursday, July 28, 2022
An upturn in exports narrows Q2 contraction to 0.9% SAAR, missing expectations but beating the Atlanta Fed estimate of 1.2%. The big determinant on the downside was the slowing of inventories (don't tell Walmart). Let's not talk about an "official recession" now. There is no such thing, and if there were, this alone wouldn't prove it. By the way, look at the chart on the top of page 3. Today's GDP is precisely what history would lead us to expect given the size and distance in the past of the prior recession.
US GDP
Thursday, January 27, 2022
Wow... 6.9% real growth, the best quarter of an already amazing year. As we expected, it was led by an historic inventory build. More of that to come -- too many shelves still empty.
US GDP
Thursday, October 28, 2021
Real GDP Q3: 2.0% SAAR. The consensus was 2.6%. The Atlanta Fed model said a mere 0.195%. It's more than all attributable to a build in inventories from all-time lows.