Onward toward the fiscal cliff. The fat tail risk has just gone way, way up.
Donald L. Luskin
What If Obama Wins?
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Close call worst of all -- if Obama thinks he has a mandate and the GOP thinks he doesn't.
On the October Jobs Report
Friday, November 2, 2012
Last data before the election. Our model's final call: Obama by 122 Electoral College votes.
On Q3 GDP
Friday, October 26, 2012
More of the same: not good enough for Obama, not bad enough for Romney.
On the October FOMC
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
With Bernanke reported to be on the way out, the Fed maintains a defensive crouch.
What if Romney Wins?
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Worst-case cliff scenarios come off the table, but considerable uncertainties would remain.
October is Half Over -- Where's the Surprise?
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
The race is narrowing, but Obama will probably win. The march toward the cliff starts soon.
On the September Jobs Report
Friday, October 5, 2012
Obama loses the debate, but unemployment breaks his way. And the doomsday clock ticks.
Positioning for the Fiscal Cliff
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Markets aren't pricing the coming volatility, but protection from it is eminently feasible.
TrendMacro's Election Model
Friday, September 28, 2012
Obama by 154 Electoral College votes. The economy isn't weak enough for Romney to win.