From Executive Orders to Spontaneous Order

Clients are telling us they are skeptical that Trump’s growth agenda can survive the apparent chaos that seems to have engulfed his administration. But stocks are at all-time highs, volatility is near all-time lows, risk premia and credit spreads have narrowed, and there aren’t even any dips to buy. The chaos is mostly a manufactured illusion, promoted by the media exploiting the greatest Cinderella story ever told, by Trump’s opponents trying to portray him as “unpresidential,” and by Trump himself who believes his improvisations are required as the Tribune of the People. We are turning from the era of “secular stagnation” to a new epoch of revived “animal spirits” which has produced unconventional leaders globally. There is always headline-risk – remember that Reagan was shot just 69 days into his first term. And there are always corrections. But this seeming chaos is a feature, not a bug.