Is the Fed Stuck on Stupid?
Mere weeks after Yellen confessed “uncertainty” after a disastrous liftoff, suddenly Fed officials see “at least” two rate hikes in 2016, perhaps starting in June – and the April FOMC minutes can be read the same way. We don’t believe it will happen. We still think no hike until December, and probably not even then. There’s no good reason for it, and lots of good reasons against it. And once burned, twice shy. But if we’re wrong, then the Fed will have revealed itself to be stuck on stupid, and markets will unravel very fast and very hard.