MACROCOSM
At Least They're Cheap
November 20, 2008
Even financials are now deeply undervalued, for the first time in this bear market.

MACROCOSM
Deflation Takes Center Stage
November 19, 2008
Core CPI prints negative, and the Fed openly uses the "D" word.

POLITICAL PULSE
It Ain't My Job
November 10, 2008
Good news for markets -- Obama's meeting of economic icons produced exactly nothing.

POLITICAL PULSE
Now What?
November 6, 2008
The election is over -- but the battle for the Senate and the Treasury is still being fought.

MACROCOSM
Bearack Obama
October 31, 2008
He could usher in a capital-unfriendly "Left decade," but in the near-term Obama's election could be a plus for stocks.

MACROCOSM
How Bad An Earnings Hit?
October 23, 2008
Forward earnings are falling -- but stocks have already fallen far more.

MACROCOSM
At Last: A Bail-out That's a Bail-out
October 14, 2008
After six months of destroying financial sector equity, Treasury gets it almost right.

MACROCOSM
The Right to Arm Bears
October 9, 2008
Donald Luskin
A recipe for speculative attack: even greater Treasury powers, and no short-selling ban.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Global Rate Cuts
October 8, 2008
Irrelevant and inflationary. Markets need real money now, not "soon."

MACROCOSM
Henry Paulson: The Donald Rumsfeld of Bail-Outs
October 6, 2008
After two weeks of congressional shock and awe, Treasury has no plan.

MACROCOSM
Quick Thoughts on the New Black Monday
September 30, 2008
The historic stock drop was more politically manufactured hysteria than reality.

MACROCOSM
Peeking Under the TARP
September 29, 2008
Now a bill, but still no details. First take: it could have been worse, and it might work.

MACROCOSM
Bail-Out Brinksmanship
September 26, 2008
Will credit markets get their bail-out? Will they even want the bail-out they might get?

MACROCOSM
It's Not the RTC -- It's a $700 Billion LBO
September 22, 2008
Donald Luskin
Treasury's bail-out is broader than the market now sees, and so will be the regulations.

MACROCOSM
If You're Short, Abort
September 19, 2008
With the SEC's ban on short-selling, two wrongs could make a right.

MACROCOSM
AIG: Rescue or Bag Run?
September 17, 2008
Government rescues are making the most important firms "too big to not fail."

MACROCOSM
Tough Love for Lehman
September 14, 2008
The Fed takes a big chance in order to break the cycle of "immoral hazard."

MACROCOSM
Your Speculative Attacks Dollars At Work
September 11, 2008
"Nationalization risk" replaces credit risk in the financial sector.

MACROCOSM
Fannie/Freddie Fallout
Monday, September 8, 2008
The takeover heals near-term crises, but raises serious long-term questions.

MACROCOSM
GSE Rescue: First Impressions
September 7, 2008
The Treasury's move will help stabilize housing and credit markets, and take pressure off the Fed.

MACROCOSM
Perception, Election, Reality and Risk
September 5, 2008
Bleak sentiment is way overblown -- but some real risks are getting closer and closer.

MACROCOSM
The Dollar: We're Not Buying It
August 26, 2008
The Fed's easy posture simply doesn't support a sustained dollar rally.

MACROCOSM
Gold: Is Enough Enough?
August 13, 2008
The drop in the "inflation plays" is overdone in light of worsening inflation risks.

MACROCOSM
No Get Out of Inflation Free Card
August 6, 2008
Inflation-sensitive markets have been distracted by oil -- soon they'll turn to the Fed.

MACROCOSM
All Cross, No Current
August 1, 2008
Stocks are cheap near-term amidst a jumble of conflicting data, news and politics.

MACROCOSM
Indecision and Inflation
July 22, 2008
As stocks have recovered, so has a glimmer of hope that the Fed might get it right.

MACROCOSM
Stocks are Cheap, But the Fed's Asleep
July 15, 2008
Hard to believe, but a rally is imminent. But long-term, the Fed has tragically missed the inflation-fighting window.

MACROCOSM
Will the GSE Rescue Work?
July 14, 2008
The rescue is feasible, and should go a long way toward restoring confidence.

MACROCOSM
From Correction to Test to Bear Market
July 10, 2008
We're not scared by bears on the cover of Barron's. We're scared that Bernanke will blow it.

MACROCOSM
Fail-Safe
July 2, 2008
Markets are all at critical test-points, waiting to see if the Fed will act to support the dollar and stabilize the oil price.

MACROCOSM
Markets Speak, Bernanke Needs to Act
June 27, 2008
We worry about the banks a little. The Fed should worry about an oil price spiral a lot.

MACROCOSM
From Pessimism to Populism
June 20, 2008
Today's fears are overwrought, but they're laying the groundwork for serious future risk.

MACROCOSM
Subprime Lending Was Their Best Idea
June 4, 2008
Where are financial sector earnings going to come from? And where's the safety net when the PDCF expires?

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Commodity Prices: Blame the Indexers?
May 28, 2008
It's an intriguing idea -- but to the extent it's true, it's only a temporary effect.

MACROCOSM
The Upside of Obamanation
May 22, 2008
Amidst a nasty correction in stocks, a (sort of) bullish take on an Obama presidency.

MACROCOSM
The Fed's New New Facility
May 16, 2008
Just when the Fed got things figured out, it's poking the hornet's nest with a new policy tool.

MACROCOSM
The Next Thing to Worry About
May 8, 2008
As the credit crisis eases, it's time to turn to the growth risks of the November election.

FED SHADOW
No Pause Promise, But No Panic
May 1, 2008
The FOMC was disturbingly vague -- but the finger is off the rate-cut trigger.

MACROCOSM
There Will Not Be Blood
April 24, 2008
The surge in oil has been somewhat overdone, but at base it's a sign of improving growth prospects.

MACROCOSM
The Bear Stearns Bottom: One Month Later
April 17, 2008
The economy stabilizes short of recession, and "inflation plays" emerge as "growth plays."

MACROCOSM
2 + 2 = 3 and 3 - 2 = 2
April 7, 2008
The Fed's new virtuous cycle changes the relationship of growth and inflation.

MARKET CALLS
Inflation Inflection
March 25, 2008
The Fed pulls back from the inflationary brink, and we call the top on "inflation plays."

MACROCOSM
Three Quarter Profile In Courage
March 19, 2008
The Fed signals an end to endless rate cuts, and markets signal the Fed may have finally mastered the credit crisis.

MACROCOSM
Bernankruptcy
March 17, 2008
It's a wonderful panic, with Ben Bernanke playing Donna Reed. How will the movie end?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Term Securities Lending Facility
March 11, 2008

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On TAF and Jobs
March 7, 2008

MACROCOSM
Gold $1000, Here We Come
February 28, 2008
It's just a matter of time, with the Fed utterly oblivious to inflation risk.

MACROCOSM
The Other Winners in the Credit Crisis
February 19, 2008
If you didn't short risky credits, being long inflation has been the place to be.

MACROCOSM
Waiting Game
February 15, 2008
Passive and gradualist, the Fed is prolonging the credit crisis and the soft-spot.

POLITICAL PULSE
Obamanation
February 5, 2008
The ascendance of Barack Obama brings anti-growth political risk into focus.

MACROCOSM
Jump! How High? Cut! How Low?
January 31, 2008
The Fed's appeasement of market panic has brought us to where further rate cuts may do more harm than good.

FED SHADOW
Fed Cred Dead?
January 22, 2008
Even as it saves the world, the Fed can't quite get it right.

MACROCOSM
Another Leg Lower
January 21, 2008
The monoline insurer crisis is uniquely dangerous, and the Fed is losing credibility at the same time.

MACROCOSM
Throwing the Baby Out with the Kitchen Sink
January 16, 2008
Even great news is taken as proof that we're heading into recession, or already there.

MACROCOSM
The End of the World, Part 3
January 7, 2008
Another market "tantrum" tests the August/November lows for stocks.

MACROCOSM
Hell of a Year?
December 27, 2007
Beyond the housing collapse and the credit implosion, things look remarkably good at year-end.

POLITICAL PULSE
Is the Inevitable Inevitable?
December 19, 2007
A GOP victory on taxes and spending, and the emergence of Ron Paul, lowers the chances of a growth catastrophe in the 2008 election.

MACROCOSM
Rescue Rangers
December 10, 2007
Daily rescue investments in the financial sector signal that the crisis is near an end, and that the Fed has done enough.

FED SHADOW
"Act As Expected"
November 28, 2007
The Fed repeats it will only "act as needed," but it's still not likely to disappoint expectations.

MACROCOSM
Gold's New Line in the Sand
November 20, 2007
Inflation-sensitive markets won't let themselves be talked down for long.

MACROCOSM
The Wages of Fear
November 19, 2007
Rising risk aversion is alarming -- but it's also a gift.

MARKET CALLS
Time to Earn the Panic Premium
November 13, 2007
Stocks are the king of carry trades once again.

MACROCOSM
The Dollar Will Have to Wait
November 8, 2007
The cost of too much ease is becoming clearer to Bernanke, but it won't turn off his liquidity fire-hose.

FED SHADOW
From Line in the Sand, to Sand in the Face
October 30, 2007
Bullied by gold, oil, the dollar and the futures markets, what can the Fed do to be strong?

MACROCOSM
Financials Stink Up the Joint
October 25, 2007
Earnings are coming in strong, except for financials -- and the Fed will take care of that.

MACROCOSM
Easier and Easier
October 12, 2007
How come inflation plays are soaring while Fed rate cut expectations are diminishing?

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Where's the There There? Part II
October 5, 2007
With stocks back to all-time highs, was the summer crisis really about nothing at all?

MACROCOSM
Honey, I Shrunk The Dollar
September 28, 2007
The Fed has kicked inflation pressures into high gear, pretty much for no good reason.

FED SHADOW
A Dearth of a Thousand Cuts
September 18, 2007
Bernanke will cave to market pressure and cut the funds rate once, but a neutral bias will disappoint the doves about future cuts.

MACROCOSM
Cut or No Cut
September 5, 2007
We still think it's an open question, but either way stocks and inflation plays will do well.

MACROCOSM
Stocks Don't Need a Rate Cut
August 31, 2007
There are other tools for the job. In fact, when easing expectations rise, stocks go down.

MACROCOSM
Where's the There There?
August 23, 2007
No recession. No deflation. Was this even a correction?

MACROCOSM
2007 and the Ghosts of 1998
August 16, 2007
The current crisis isn't a repeat of Long Term Capital Management, but it rhymes.

MARKET CALLS
Burned Out
August 7, 2007
Panic was ignited by Bill Gross and it burned out with Jim Cramer.

MACROCOSM
Thoughts After a Very Rough Week
July 30, 2007
Two weeks after all-time highs, panic-stricken stocks are almost as cheap as they were at the very bottom.

MACROCOSM
Bill Gross Shoots, But Can't Hit
July 25, 2007
If this is a real "liquidity crisis," then the Dow is at 5000.

MACROCOSM
The King Is Dead, Long Live the King
July 9, 2007
Stocks are no longer insanely cheap relative to bonds. They're just wildly cheap.

MACROCOSM
The Subprime and the Banal
June 25, 2007
The global liquidity surplus will absorb the latest speculative crisis. The problem is that everybody knows it.

MACROCOSM
Stocks Unfazed
June 14, 2007
Neither a new anti-China bill nor the latest leg in the four-year bear market in bonds will crack the stock market.

MARKET CALLS
Doves Eat Crow
June 6, 2007
They admit it finally -- no rate cuts. But that won't hurt growth, so a stock market correction will be short-lived.

MARKET CALLS
Inflation Plays Revisited
May 31, 2007
The worst case inflation risk is off the table, but risk remains as growth accelerates.

POLITICAL PULSE
Best Behavior
May 22, 2007
It's not the economy, stupid. For now, Democrats have no reason to rock the growth boat.

POLITICAL PULSE
Upside Surprise on Trade
May 14, 2007
A Democratic congress finds a way to keep the globalization train on the track.

POLITICAL PULSE
Washington on Hold
May 10, 2007
The two forces most likely to derail the economy -- the Fed and the Democratic congress -- have both put themselves on the sidelines.

MACROCOSM
Two Economies, One Funds Rate
May 1, 2007
The Fed is letting 5% of the economy make 100% of its policy decisions.

MACROCOSM
Earnings to Economy: "No Recession"
April 20, 2007
One company at a time, the forward consensus isn't worried about the latest crisis du jour.

MARKET CALLS
Update to Our US Equity Outlook
April 13, 2007
The correction was a correction -- it has about run its course, with inflation plays in the lead.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Trade in the Balance
April 5, 2007
Why trade is good, why protectionism is bad, and why countervailing duties on Chinese paper are only a small step in the wrong direction.

MACROCOSM
Flex Time
March 30, 2007
Today's data should begin to bend the "flexible" Fed toward the breaking point.

MACROCOSM
Huh?
March 22, 2007
The Fed may be on pause longer now, but nothing in yesterday's FOMC statement justifies the fantasy that rate cuts are coming.

MACROCOSM
All Tip, No Iceberg
March 16, 2007
Superabundant liquidity is buffering the economy from problems in subprime.

MACROCOSM
Something's Survived
March 8, 2007
Donald Luskin
The inflation plays are the winners in the market's recent turbulence.

MARKET CALLS
Are We Scared Yet?
February 28, 2007
Donald Luskin
We got the correction we expected -- but is that really all it is?

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Subprime Time
February 26, 2007
Donald Luskin
Excess liquidity will absorb subprime's problems -- a Fed bailout would only add to inflation.

MARKET CALLS
Enough Good News for a Correction
February 16, 2007
With Bernanke on indefinite hold and tax risk reduced, what's left to rally stocks?

MACROCOSM
Chairman Bernanke's Year of Living Dangerously
February 8, 2007
In his second year, Bernanke will have to pay the price for the risks he took in his first.

MACROCOSM
Gold Versus Goldilocks
February 2, 2007
The problem with this stock market rally is that inflation plays are leading it.

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Wars
January 22, 2007
The era of tax cuts is over, and a new era of tax risk has begun.

MARKET CALLS
Update to our Equity Sector Forecasts
January 11, 2007
Tech and Telecom driven by Democrats -- Energy and Materials driven by seemingly everything.

MACROCOSM
A Break in Trend
January 8, 2007
Stocks have drooped just as investors had become complacent, and growth visibly reaccelerates.

MARKET CALLS
It Was a Very Good Year
December 29, 2006
We were right that stocks would dominate in 2006 -- the trick in 2007 will be to call the top.

MACROCOSM
Paradox Friday
December 18, 2006
Mixed signals prolong "Indian summer," but they're no cause for complacency.

POLITICAL PULSE
Net Neutrality Not Neutered
December 14, 2006
Two big defeats for "net neutrality" regulation don't make a deregulatory trend.

MACROCOSM
Walk the Hawk
November 30, 2006
The "inflation plays" smell blood in Ben Bernanke's water.

MACROCOSM
Indian Summer
November 21, 2006
How long can stocks make hay until the Fed lowers the boom?

POLITICAL PULSE
Stock Market Exit Poll
November 15, 2006
Equity sectors are already responding to the Democratic congressional sweep.

POLITICAL PULSE
Don't Panic
November 8, 2006
The Democrats did better than expected, but it's not a lurch toward anti-growth policy.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Gut Check for Growth
November 2, 2006
Our growth forecast is getting increasingly out of consensus -- and that's just where we like it.

MACROCOSM
The Price of the Pause
October 20, 2006
With the Fed on pause, the equilibrium funds rate is now arguably above 6%.

POLITICAL PULSE
Speaker Pelosi
October 12, 2006
Long-term, the GOP losing congressional control may be best for growth.

MACROCOSM
Highs for Stocks, Lows for Sentiment
October 9, 2006
In our "first up, then down" strategy model, how long can "first up" last?

FED SHADOW
The Frustrated Fed
September 28, 2006
Where on Lenin's Tomb do Fed officials have to stand to signal their hawkish bias?

MACROCOSM
Immaculate Consumption
September 20, 2006
Consumers will stay strong -- bad news for the Fed, good news for the GOP.

MACROCOSM
Weak Gold, Strong Inflation
September 13, 2006
Gold would have to drop another $200 to truly relieve inflation pressures.

MACROCOSM
Foreshocks
September 7, 2006
Modest positives rule the near term, but inevitable negatives are just over the horizon.

MARKET CALLS
Update to Our US Equity Forecast
August 23, 2006
Why the bullish short term can only be so good, and why the bearish long term might only be so bad.

MACROCOSM
If Only It Were This Easy
August 18, 2006
We're delighted to see stocks up and gold down -- but don't break out the champagne just yet.

MARKET CALLS
Bernanke's Quagmire
August 7, 2006
The Fed will cause a real recession by trying to prevent an illusory one.

MACROCOSM
Judgment Day
August 3, 2006
Tuesday's FOMC meeting will be pivotal for markets and the economy.

MACROCOSM
Depending on Undependable Data
July 28, 2006
Today's GDP report may take away the Fed's "wrong reason" to do the "right thing."

MACROCOSM
Bernanke on the Hill
July 20, 2006
The Fed chief may hope the data will allow the rate hikes to stop, but there's one more coming.

MACROCOSM
Inflection Point Deflected
July 11, 2006
Equities need the Fed to find the courage and credibility to deal with inflation risk.

MACROCOSM
The Out-of-Consensus Consensus
June 26, 2006
Slowdown fears grip Wall Street -- yet analysts' forward earnings are accelerating.

MACROCOSM
The May 10 Inflection Point
June 12, 2006
It was the high water mark of inflation expectations and carry trades -- but it's a mistake to think it's going to roll the economy over.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Tuesday's Elections
Wednesday, June 7, 2006

MACROCOSM
Today and 1987: Ominous Parallels? Part 2
June 2, 2006
The worst thing the Fed could do now is to repeat Greenspan's 1987 mistake.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Treasury Secretary Paulson
May 30, 2006

MACROCOSM
Today and 1987: Ominous Parallels? Part 1
May 25, 2006
Some macroeconomic variables are parallel to 1987, but markets are totally perpendicular.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bad News About Avian Flu
May 24, 2006

MACROCOSM
Rain on the Tax Cut Parade
May 15, 2006
Now stocks have to worry about a Democratic House, and a Fed that is "putting uphill.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Good News About Avian Flu
May 11, 2006

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Extending the Tax Cuts: The Home Stretch
May 9, 2006

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Tax Bill Progress
May 3, 2006

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Another Tax Bill Breakdown
April 27, 2006

MACROCOSM
High Noon
April 25, 2006
Stocks face the risk that if the 2003 tax cuts aren't extended now, they never will be.

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Cut Rashomon
April 11, 2006
Even a call from the President couldn't get the 2003 tax cuts extended last week, but it's not over yet.

POLITICAL PULSE
Two to Tangle the Tax Cuts
April 10, 2006
How Chuck Grassley and Bill Thomas let a personal feud put growth at risk.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Tax and Budget Breakdowns
April 7, 2006

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Cut Extension: The Deal Takes Shape
April 6, 2006
While partisans are distracted by immigration, tax reconciliation is quietly moving forward.

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
March 29, 2006
Bird flu theme takes flight, stock-friendly Fed news, protectionism recedes.

MACROCOSM
Why Rates Can't Clock Stocks
March 23, 2006
How can stocks and interest rates make new highs at the same time?

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
March 16, 2006
Updates on extending the 2003 tax cuts, and the avian influenza theme.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Avian Flu: Risk and Opportunity
March 6, 2006
When infected birds show up on US soil this year, it will be a further windfall for biotech companies.

FED SHADOW
Is Ben Bernanke a Phillips Head?
March 1, 2006
Does the Fed chair mean it when he says that maximum employment and price stability are compatible?

POLITICAL PULSE
Extending Visibility
February 17, 2006
Chances for extension of the 2003 tax cuts have gotten better -- and markets are beginning to see it.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Byrd Rule and Extension of the 2003 Tax Cuts
February 8, 2006

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
February 7, 2006
What's driving gold, corporate earnings slowdown, and tax cut extension progress.

POLITICAL PULSE
Quick Takes from Washington
February 2, 2006
Extending the tax cuts and the GOP majority, new Fed governors, new CEA chair.

MACROCOSM
Election Risk: It's Back
January 26, 2006
The 2006 congressional elections are coming into view as a driver of stock prices

MACROCOSM
Resilience or Folly?
January 20, 2006
Stocks have weathered well this week, but we're suspicious.

MACROCOSM
Accidentally on Purpose
January 11, 2006
How the stock market and the Fed are getting it right by getting it wrong.

MACROCOSM
Don't Put a Fork In It
January 6, 2006
The Fed's not done, and either is extending capital-friendly tax rates.

FED SHADOW
Bernanke's Conundrum
December 20, 2005
As the new Fed chairman takes office, his deepest beliefs will pull him in opposite policy directions.

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Bill Game Theory, and Why It Matters
December 8, 2005
More thrills and spills on the way to extension of the 2003 tax cuts -- and a remembrance of what those cuts have done for the economy.

POLITICAL PULSE
Heading into the Tax Bill Endgame
December 2, 2005
Stocks are priced neither for the best nor the worst policy outcomes.

POLITICAL PULSE
A Whiff of Windfall Profits Taxes
November 17, 2005
Extending the 2003 tax cuts is now complicated by an accounting penalty on big oil.

POLITICAL PULSE
Beyond Disappointment
November 11, 2005
Why do stocks hang tough while the Republican pro-growth consensus continues to unravel?

POLITICAL PULSE
A Setback for Extending the 2003 Tax Cuts
November 9, 2005
Grassley's retreat to only one-year extension may be part of a broader retreat for pro-growth policy.

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
November 3, 2005
Energy and consumer themes, Bush one year after, looking to 2006, and extending the 2003 tax cuts.

POLITICAL PULSE
Quag Miers for the Fed
October 24, 2005
Handicapping how a dysfunctional White House will select the next Greenspan.

MACROCOSM
Attack of the Kohn-heads
October 12, 2005
The emergence of deficit-hawks on the FOMC presents a new prospect for monetary policy risk.

MACROCOSM
What's Spooked Stocks?
October 7, 2005
Already nervous stocks have been discounting deepening political risks.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Played Out
October 5, 2005
The pro-energy and anti-consumer consensus is ripe for reversal.

POLITICAL PULSE
Monetary Step Forward, Fiscal Step Backward
September 29, 2005
Grassley puts tax cuts at risk, while Greenspan gives himself one more vote.

POLITICAL PULSE
The McCain Mutiny
September 23, 2005
A deficit hawk has emerged as the unlikely man at the margin on tax cuts.

MACROCOSM
So Far So Good
September 15, 2005
Pro-growth policy is still on track, despite post-Katrina economic and spending shocks.

MACROCOSM
Blamestorm
September 6, 2005
The post-Katrina risks to markets are mostly political, not economic.

MACROCOSM
Water In The Streets
September 1, 2005
Katrina could trigger important revaluations in stocks, bonds, and oil.

MACROCOSM
Oil In Perspective
August 25, 2005
The risk from record oil prices is less than meets the eye -- or, at least, different.

MACROCOSM
The Fed's Oil Crisis
August 15, 2005
The oil spike has a strong inflationary component -- yet it may make the Fed less vigilant.

MACROCOSM
Are Stocks Protected from Protectionism?
August 4, 2005
The market has celebrated deliverance from the China tariff crisis -- but is it really over?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Yuan Revaluation
July 21, 2005

MACROCOSM
Earnings Surprise
July 15, 2005
In a pessimistic and politicized world, stocks are just barely beginning to reflect the macro positives.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the London Bombings
July 7, 2005

MACROCOSM
Policy Takes A Right Turn
July 5, 2005
Trade, monetary and tax policy risks all abated last week: good news for stocks.

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
June 23, 2005
Oil, inflation plays, Social Security, global warming and China.

MACROCOSM
The King of Carry Trades
June 14, 2005
The carry trade with the best mark-to-value and the most valuable optionality is the one that no one is doing.

MACROCOSM
Efficient Equals Wrong
June 10, 2005
We aren't buying the stories the "efficient" bond market is telling, and either is Greenspan.

MACROCOSM
Listen Up
June 2, 2005
Stocks are telling us that inflation risk is moderating, rates are rising, and that growth will be steady.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Judicial Nominations Pact
May 25, 2005

MACROCOSM
Ducked Bullets
May 20, 2005
Risks to equities are improving, and so are prices -- yet stocks are as cheap as ever.

MACROCOSM
Valuation Brinksmanship
May 12, 2005
Stocks have pulled back from a value abyss -- shades of March, 2003.

FED SHADOW
Department of Corrections
May 4, 2005
The FOMC corrected its statement yesterday -- but when will the Fed correct the bond market.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Inflation: Disagreement Among Friends
April 26, 2005
Even economists who respect market-based price signals are missing the evidence of more inflation yet to come.

MACROCOSM
Tsunamis! Killer Asteroids! Protectionism!
April 21, 2005
Add another one to the list of risks driving stocks to historic undervaluation.

MACROCOSM
Back to Square One
April 15, 2005
In growth-sensitive markets now, it’s as though the presidential election never happened.

POLITICAL PULSE
Waiting for a "Swift Boats Moment"
April 7, 2005
Undervalued stocks need a catalyst that clears the overhang of tax policy risk.

MACROCOSM
The End of a Theme
March 29, 2005
If the Fed follows through, it's good for stocks and bad for the reflation/inflation plays.

MACROCOSM
About Time
March 21, 2005
The Fed finally awakens to the inflation threat -- and in time to remain "measured."

MACROCOSM
Inflation Now
March 14, 2005
Undervalued stocks have absorbed the inflation scare that has devastated bonds.

MACROCOSM
Buried Alive?
March 3, 2005
Social Security reform is tied to the Bush growth agenda -- and both are still in play.

POLITICAL PULSE
Pyrrhic Victory?
February 23, 2005
Bush risks throwing away his tax cuts in a gambit to win Social Security reform.

MARKET CALLS
A Question of Value
February 14, 2005
Cheap stocks in a robust economic environment are an outstanding risk/return play.

POLITICAL PULSE
The 3% Finesse
February 8, 2005
Bush's misunderstood benefit offset could be the key to enacting personal accounts in Social Security.

POLITICAL PULSE
The Purple Finger of Fate
Thursday, February 3, 2005
The successful Iraq election opens a window for pro-growth policy success.

POLITICAL PULSE
Policy Paranoia
January 24, 2005
Stocks are exaggerating the risk that the Social Security debate is getting out of control.

MACROCOSM
Waiting for the River
January 18, 2005
It's another high-stakes hand of Texas Hold-'em, Bush style.

MACROCOSM
The Rate Stuff
January 5, 2005
The new year begins with a rate scare for stocks -- and a buying opportunity.

MACROCOSM
Social Security: Politics and Economics
December 21, 2004
The inner financial and political dynamics of Social Security reform, and what they mean for markets.

POLITICAL PULSE
Next Year's Miracle
December 14, 2004
Here's the likely shape of Bush's big bet for 2005: Social Security reform with private accounts.

MACROCOSM
We've Only Just Begun
December 3, 2004
There's still air in the "bubble of fear" -- and room on the upside for stocks.

MACROCOSM
Stop Worrying and Love the Bond?
November 18, 2004
No -- bonds are as wrong as the Fed is if they imagine there is no inflation threat.

MACROCOSM
Unlocking "The Bush Rally"
November 12, 2004
Election: click. Oil: click. Economy: click. The Fed: clunk!

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
A Big Score
November 5, 2004
Bush wins. Stocks win. And the political futures markets win.

MARKET CALLS
Don't Miss the Obvious
November 2, 2004
A bubble of fear has driven stocks to deep undervaluation, and that bubble is about to burst.

POLITICAL PULSE
Y2K Then, EY04 Now
October 25, 2004
Democrats say they will litigate the election -- and markets believe them.

MACROCOSM
Broken?
October 15, 2004
Some important things are broken. But stocks are priced as though they can never be fixed.

MACROCOSM
Getting Back Into Whack
October 5, 2004
Political markets, capital markets and labor markets are all recovering from extreme disequilibriums.

POLITICAL PULSE
Many A Slip
October 1, 2004
Bush missed the whisper number last night. Time to start whispering about October 8.

MACROCOSM
Bush Out of Whack
September 22, 2004
How come markets haven't rallied as much as George Bush has?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bush Under Speculative Attack
September 14, 2004

POLITICAL PULSE
The Bush-Bashing Bubble Has Burst
September 7, 2004
The markets and the economy may finally be getting visibility on a Bush victory.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
An Olympic-Size Risk
August 26, 2004
The controversy over Olympic gymnastic gold may be a precursor of another contested presidential election.

MACROCOSM
Is It "All About Oil"?
August 20, 2004
Or is oil all about President George W. Bush?

POLITICAL PULSE
Not So Nifty Fifty-Fifty
August 13, 2004
We're at the point of maximum electoral uncertainty -- and it may continue until well after the election.

MACROCOSM
Oil, Jobs and Equities
August 6, 2004
Oil and jobs mean higher levels of political and monetary risk -- but the economy is still robust and stocks are very cheap.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the No-Bounce Bounce
August 3, 2004

MACROCOSM
Just Chute Me
July 29, 2004
Over-excited fantasies have elevated risk premiums at the bottom of the trading range.

MARKET CALLS
Tech: A Trading Value Play
July 20, 2004
Back at the bottom of the trading range, the Technology Sector looks cheap in relative and absolute terms.

MACROCOSM
The Ghosts of 2000
July 15, 2004
Intel's earnings report evokes the precipice before the fall -- but that was then and this is now.

MACROCOSM
The Republic of Hanging Chad
July 7, 2004
Markets twist in the wind while tax and monetary policy are up for grabs.

FED SHADOW
Measure This!
June 25, 2004
You can't fight the numbers: trusting the Fed has been an expensive mistake.

MACROCOSM
Coming to Terms with Inflation Reality
June 21, 2004
Most investors don't "get it" that inflation is alive short-term, and that disinflation is dead long-term.

MACROCOSM
Summer of our Discontent
June 7, 2004
Equities are hostage to resolution on inflation and the election.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
More Thoughts on $40 Crude
May 26, 2004
This time it really is different: today's high oil prices don't have to mean a rerun of "That 70's Show."

MACROCOSM
Climbing the Wall of Self-Loathing
May 18, 2004
With the world supposedly falling apart, why isn't the market more scared?

MACROCOSM
The Right Tight
May 13, 2004
Tightening cycles can be good for stocks -- if the Fed gets it right for a change.

MACROCOSM
Measured
May 5, 2004
Bonds lose, stocks win. 

MACROCOSM
A Buyable Consolidation?
April 28, 2004
So where's the "buyable dip"? Maybe this is it.

MACROCOSM
Buyable Dip? Yes, But...
April 16, 2004
Higher interest rates are not to be feared -- provided the Fed really delivers them, and Bush dodges the political fallout.

MARKET CALLS
Tech: Back in Harm's Way?
April 8, 2004
With new political uncertainties and no valuation tailwinds, the tech sector is suddenly not so compelling.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bush and Jobs
April 2, 2004

MACROCOSM
More At Stake Than Jobs
April 1, 2004
Bush (and the market) survived Richard Clarke. Now for tomorrow's payroll jobs number.

POLITICAL PULSE
The Bush Breakout
March 19, 2004
After two months of silence, Bush is back. It's time to unwind the Kerry trade.

MACROCOSM
The Kerry Trade
March 12, 2004
Political uncertainty is opening up an interesting value opportunity.

MACROCOSM
Tough Time for Tech
March 8, 2004
The most growth-sensitive sector is caught in the crossfire of political and monetary risks.

MACROCOSM
Inflationary Paradoxes
March 3, 2004
Markets struggle to come to terms with the reality of inflationary acceleration.

MACROCOSM
If There's No Inflation, Then How Come...
February 23, 2004
...basic materials sector earnings forecasts are exploding, and price hikes are starting to move through the pipeline?

INTELLECTUAL AMMO
China and Inflation
February 18, 2004
Our inflationary fears are not reduced by the several popular China theories.

MARKET CALLS
A Tricky Mixture
February 10, 2004
Equity sectors are being driven by both growth and inflation.

MARKET CALLS
A Buyable Dip
January 29, 2004
Rising rates here won't be bad for stocks, knee-jerk reactions notwithstanding.

POLITICAL PULSE
Iowa -- Who's Upset?
January 22, 2004
Kerry's Iowa surprise changes the market's perceptions of electoral risks for the economy.

MACROCOSM
"It" Can Happen Here
January 15, 2004
The "it" is inflation, and "it" will happen. 1987 deja vu all over again?

MACROCOSM
The Tax Cut Gift that Keeps on Giving
January 5, 2004
Last year's rally barely moved valuations on an after-tax basis, and stocks are still cheap.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
A Considerable Seduction
December 17, 2003
The Fed's campaign to lower long-term yields and increase inflation is a dangerous bait-and-switch.

MARKET CALLS
The Best Materials
December 9, 2003
In stocks, a new fastest horse emerges as the reflationary expansion turns inflationary.

MACROCOSM
The Inflation Chartbook
December 2, 2003
Despite what the Fed says, forward-looking market-based metrics point to inflation.

MACROCOSM
Gold $400
November 19, 2003
400 is just a number. Gold is just a barbarous relic. And Helen of Troy was just a woman.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
The Politics of Expansion
November 10, 2003
The conventional wisdom is catching up to the market in seeing the economic expansion -- and that presents some new risks.

MACROCOSM
The Road to Hope
November 6,
Risks abound, but is it time to stop worrying and love the expansion?

MARKET CALLS
Investing at the Brink
October 30, 2003
Picking the winners and losers as the Fed sleepwalks at the edge of inflation.

POLITICAL PULSE
Frustrated and Concerned
October 21, 2003
John Snow said something sensible yesterday. That begs the question -- why?

POLITICAL PULSE
The Potential Price of Pandering
October 17, 2003
The administration's politicized dollar policy risks the market's confidence in economic recovery.

MACROCOSM
Tech's Top Line is Back
October 10, 2003
Tech has moved beyond the "sales-less recovery."

MACROCOSM
Greenspan, Gold and Growth
October 6, 2003
Why isn't the stock market reacting better to Friday's jobs growth news?

POLITICAL PULSE
Defeat from the Jaws of Victory?
September 25, 2003
Political posturing and unsound economics threatens the expansion.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
The Deficit and Growth
September 22, 2003
The deficit is a reflection of our performance-based economy -- slow growth was its cause, and fast growth will be its cure.

MACROCOSM
Is There a Tech Valuation Headwind?
September 12, 2003
Tech is no bargain, but it's at the center of an investment-led recovery.

MACROCOSM
Hope, Greed, Fear, Worry and the Fed
September 5, 2003
Fed policy will help stocks climb the wall of worry, even if it is entirely absurd.

POLITICAL PULSE
Another Scandal
September 4, 2003
Spitzer's new front is probably a non-event -- but here are the risks you might not have considered.

MACROCOSM
Did the Tax Cuts Pay Dividends?
August 25, 2003
All the evidence is that the tax cuts on dividends and capital gains are performing exactly as predicted.

MACROCOSM
In Synch
August 19, 2003
Earnings revisions and bond yields are telling the same pro-growth story.

INTELLECTUAL AMMO
Fed Cred
August 13, 2003
Did the Fed break its promise to the bond market... or is it just that you can't cheat an honest man?

MACROCOSM
New Dynamics for Equities
August 4, 2003
Earnings recovery is solidly in place, but stocks will have to adapt to a new era of fair valuation.

MACROCOSM
A Phase-Shift in Valuation
July 28, 2003
Stocks and bonds have worked together to collapse the equity risk premium.

FED SHADOW
Bernanke to the Rescue?
July 23, 2003
Bernanke's homage to deflation-fighting will provide only short-term comfort to battered bond bulls.

MACROCOSM
Flies in the Ointment
July 18, 2003
The growth case is compelling, but the markets are pausing to consider the risks.

MACROCOSM
The Whiff of Animal Spirits
July 10, 2003
The resurgence of restructuring activity is the precursor of economic expansion.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Microsoft's Options Reboot
July 9, 2003
Ending option grants could be the prelude to paying out Microsoft's $46 billion hoard.

FED SHADOW
How Much Will These Free Options Cost?
June 25, 2003
Unworried about inflation, the Fed's trying to gun the economy.

MARKET CALLS
Four Pillars of Wisdom
June 20, 2003
Valuation, monetary policy and tax policy are all in bull-mode. But there's a fourth factor.

POLITICAL PULSE
Mankiw Very Much
June 13, 2003
Dr. Mankiw looks like he'll be a valuable pro-growth member of the Bush team.

MACROCOSM
Aftermath of a Tax Cut Miracle
May 27, 2003
After the dangerous journey to achieving an historic tax cut, can the market let itself enjoy the good news?

MACROCOSM
Another Quarter, Another Crisis?
May 20, 2003
Take a deep breath and have a calm look at the dollar and the coming tax cut.

FED SHADOW
Portrait of the Greenspan Era
May 6, 2003
When it comes to monetary policy, a picture may be worth 100,000 of Alan Greenspan's words.

POLITICAL PULSE
Down Payment on a Miracle
May 5, 2003
Bush's tax cuts went to the House, and are coming out better than ever. But the Senate's another matter.

POLITICAL PULSE
Self-inflicted Damage in the Tax Wars
April 30, 2003
If the administration is going to sell its tax-cuts, it had better change its pitch.

MACROCOSM
Back from the War
April 16, 2003
It's back to business for the economy and for President Bush.

POLITICAL PULSE
The Hanging-Chad Tax-Cut
April 10, 2003
The market doesn't want to wait for Bush's tax-cuts -- but a rush to cut a lousy deal is even worse.

POLITICAL PULSE
Notes from the West Wing
April 3, 2003
The war comes first. Nevertheless, the market underestimates the chances for pro-growth tax-cuts.

MACROCOSM
Tracking the Tax Wars
March 27, 2003
Bush's defeat in the Senate on tax-cuts is a victory -- the question is: what kind of victory?

MARKET CALLS
W's Bottom
March 24, 2003
The bears get their say this week as the war gets real -- but markets have seen the worst.

MACROCOSM
The No-Peace Rally
March 20, 2003
The war has moved from the UN to Iraq, and the fever of uncertainty has broken.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
NASDAQ 5000, Dow 5000
March 10, 2003
The high-water mark of optimism versus today's ebb tide of pessimism.

MACROCOSM
Buffetted
March 6, 2003
Warren Buffett's perplexity reflects the market's paradoxical combination of growth and value plays.

POLITICAL PULSE
Going for Broke?
February 28, 2003
The paradox of Bush's strategy is that he's ramping up political risk as his approval ratings decline.

MACROCOSM
Techstocks: Recovery Play and War Hedge
February 18, 2003
Techstocks have beaten the market this year -- thanks to both economic recovery and the risks of war.

MACROCOSM
Understanding War Risk
February 12, 2003
Yes, the markets fear the risk of war -- but it's a risk with both a downside and an upside.

MACROCOSM
Beyond Iraq
January 27, 2003
Shifts in valuations are hinting that there's growth out there beyond the risk of war.

MACROCOSM
Assessing the Tax-Cut: Part 1 -- The Dividend Windfall
January 22, 2003
Long-term effects aside, here's why a dividend tax-cut would be a bolt from the blue that would boost all stock prices.

MACROCOSM
Microsoft's "Starter Dividend"
January 17, 2003
Bush's tax-cut plan hasn't even been proposed to Congress yet, but it's already starting to work.
 

POLITICAL PULSE
Born-Again Growth Advocacy
January 8, 2003
Bush's stodgy tax plan is blossoming into an important pro-growth initiative.

MACROCOSM
Gameplan for the New Year
January 6, 2003
A macro view of the major US asset classes, and a new Model Position in bonds.

MACROCOSM
Bush's Tax Cuts: Curb Your Enthusiasm
January 2, 2003
Hopes for pro-growth tax policy initiatives are worse than dead -- they've never even been born.

POLITICAL PULSE
A Lott for Markets to Think About
December 16, 2002
There are both big positives and big negatives that could emerge from the Lott crisis -- while we