MACROCOSM
Vicious Cycle Visions
November 10, 2008
This recession will end like they all do -- when risk premia coax capital back to work.

Now What?
November 6, 2008
Donald Luskin
The election is over -- but the battle for the Senate and the Treasury is still being fought.

MACROCOSM
Emerging Relief
November 4, 2008
The worst is over for the emerging markets, but the road to recovery will be rocky.

FED SHADOW
1% and So What?
October 29, 2008
The funds rate has been trading below 1% for weeks, and the Fed has moved beyond rate-targeting anyway.

MACROCOSM
The Fear Trade
October 24, 2008
Fear got us into recession, and fear is going to keep us from getting out of it.

FED SHADOW
Regime Change at the Fed
October 14, 2008
Interest on reserves could either accelerate or prevent inflation -- it depends on how the Fed handles this powerful new tool.

MACROCOSM
I Knew Japan -- You Are No Japan
October 2, 2008
David Gitlitz
With the Fed ultra-easy, there's no way the US is going down Japan's deflationary road.

MACROCOSM
Fear Itself, Volume 2
September 23, 2008
Even the most aggressive rescue plan isn't likely to avert recession at this point.

FED SHADOW
How Tough is Ben's Tough Love?
September 16, 2008
The Fed has eschewed bailouts. Can the FOMC resist a pointless rate-cut today?

MACROCOSM
Fannie/Freddie Fallout
September 8, 2008
The takeover heals near-term crises, but raises serious long-term questions.

MACROCOSM
Perception, Election, Reality and Risk
September 5, 2008
Bleak sentiment is way overblown -- but some real risks are getting closer and closer.

MACROCOSM
Deflation? Surely You're Joking
August 21, 2008
Inflation pressures are still intense, despite falling commodities and slower growth.

MACROCOSM
Dollar/Euro, Fed/ECB, Gold/Oil: Keeping It All Straight
August 11, 2008
Apparent dollar strength is likely a trading aberration, not a sustainable trend.

MACROCOSM
What Did They Do To Deserve This?
August 5, 2008
First we exported our inflation to the emerging markets. Now are we hoping to import their rate-hikes?

FED SHADOW
Splitsville
July 24, 2008
In a showdown between the dovish Fed governors and the hawkish regional presidents, the governors win.

MACROCOSM
Fannie and Freddie Fan Inflation Fire
July 11, 2008
The scariest consequence of the GSE panic is renewed risk of a worst-case inflation scenario.

FED SHADOW
Bernanke's Test
July 3, 2008
The ECB challenges the Fed to clean up its own inflationary mess.

FED SHADOW
Bonds Wish, Stocks Worry
June 26, 2008
Markets are wrong if they believe that yesterday's FOMC statement puts the Fed on hold.

FED SHADOW
Hikes Are Coming, and Not a Moment Too Soon
June 19, 2008
Despite the chatter, an improving economy and rising inflation point to a higher funds rate.

FED SHADOW
This is the Turn
June 11, 2008
In a matter of days, Fed expectations have shifted 180 degrees -- to the right direction.

FED SHADOW
The Bernanke Awakening
June 5, 2008
The Fed chief's dollar talk is not just talk. It's a call to action.

MACROCOSM
Facing the Music
May 29, 2008
The Fed will soon have no choice but to deal with rising inflation, and bonds aren't ready.

MACROCOSM
What Recession?
May 7, 2008
David Gitlitz
Things will have to get a lot worse for this to be a recession. And they're likely to get better.

FED SHADOW
FOMC Preview
April 29, 2008
Tomorrow the Fed will pause -- but an end to the easing cycle would be more refreshing.

FED SHADOW
Fed vs ECB -- the ECB Wins
April 23, 2008
The euro's run may be ending as the Fed starts acting more like the ECB.

FED SHADOW
It Doesn't Look As Bad Now As it Did Then
April 10, 2008
Don't read too much into minutes of an FOMC meeting held the day after the end of the world.

MACROCOSM
Weak Jobs Today, Better News Ahead?
April 4, 2008
It's still a slowdown, not a recession -- but whatever it is, it's almost over.

FED SHADOW
Inflation: Not the Worst Case, But Still a Case
March 26, 2008
The Fed isn't going to be as easy as it once seemed, but it's still very easy.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Emerging Markets, Emerging Dollar Inflation
March 13, 2008
US inflation shows up first in the developing world, and then it comes home to roost.

FED SHADOW
Well Anchored?
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
The Fed's statements about inflation expectations are not anchored to reality.

FED SHADOW
"No Quandary Here"?
February 21, 2008
The Fed has a bogus rationale for sacrificing price stability on the altar of easy money.

MACROCOSM
A Stronger Dollar? Don't Be Fooled
February 12, 2008
The ECB is poised for excessive ease, weakening the euro but not strengthening the dollar.

MACROCOSM
Something For Everyone
February 4, 2008
Recent data supports both optimism and pessimism, but we're still on the upbeat side.

MACROCOSM
Don't Be Surprised If Data Surprises
January 28, 2008
The Fed won't dare disappoint rate cut expectations. But data could change the long-term game.

MACROCOSM
Soft Spot, Not Armageddon
January 17, 2008
Look carefully at the numbers: the data just doesn't support the end-of-the-world thesis.

FED SHADOW
Helicopter Ben Takes Flight
January 11, 2008
The more Bernanke gives, the more the markets want -- and the more money gets dropped.

MACROCOSM
High Anxiety
January 3, 2008
The Fed is worried -- but only about credit markets, not inflation.

MACROCOSM
A Dollar Bottom?
December 20, 2007
David Gitlitz
Not until the Fed takes inflation more seriously than it does the turmoil in credit markets.

FED SHADOW
Confusion Reigns
December 12, 2007
The Fed is trying to help, but its clumsiness is undermining confidence rather than enhancing it.

MACROCOSM
The Fed In a Box
November 29, 2007
What can the Fed do when markets and the media expect Armageddon -- but there's no evidence for it?

MACROCOSM
Fear Itself
November 16, 2007
The Fed is helping the economy talk itself into a slow patch.

FED SHADOW
Fed Liquidity Runneth Over
November 7, 2007
A new conundrum: the Fed is injecting record liquidity, yet the funds rate is trading below target.

FED SHADOW
Hawk on the Outside, Dove on the Inside
November 1, 2007
Yesterday's FOMC disappointed the doves, but the Fed remains tilted toward ease.

MACROCOSM
The Unloved Buck
October 23, 2007
With the Fed bowing to recession fears and market expectations, the dollar is collateral damage.

MACROCOSM
Enough Recovery for the Fed?
October 12, 2007
Credit markets have stabilized, which may be enough to give the Fed pause before cutting rates again.

FED SHADOW
Fed in the Crosshairs
October 5, 2007
The first rule of central banking is: never admit you made a mistake. That means another rate cut at the October FOMC meeting.

FED SHADOW
It's Not Just a River in Egypt
September 28, 2007
For the Fed, it's "jobs, jobs, jobs" -- and inflation is a matter of deep denial.

FED SHADOW
The Fed Gets the Yips
September 19, 2007
The Fed caves in to panic, and inflation risk kicks into high gear.

MACROCOSM
Did Somebody Say "Inflation"?
September 13, 2007
No, nobody did. Nobody but the Treasury curve, that is.

MACROCOSM
Bad Jobs
September 7, 2007
Let us be the last to say so -- the Fed will cut rates on September 18. But that doesn't mean recession, or a prolonged easing cycle, is around the corner.

MACROCOSM
Don't Count Your Doves
August 30, 2007
Despite a seemingly overwhelming consensus, it's still too early to take rate cuts for granted.

FED SHADOW
Easy Does It
August 23, 2007
For the Fed, easing the market's pain means not easing policy.

FED SHADOW
A Surgical Strike
August 17, 2007
The Fed cleverly addressed the needs of beleaguered markets, without launching new helicopter drops of money on the broad economy.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Fed Open Market Operations
August 10, 2007
David Gitlitz

FED SHADOW
The Fed Gets it Right
August 8, 2007
Thankfully no pandering to panic-mongers, but rates likely stuck on hold now until 2008.

MACROCOSM
Bernanke Won't Hit the Panic Button
August 6, 2007
Monetary liquidity is already plentiful, and the normalization of the price of credit risk doesn't threaten growth.

MACROCOSM
Fever of Fear
July 26, 2007
It's not the end of the world. But the price of risk-bearing has gone up -- to normal levels.

MACROCOSM
Dollar Glut, Continued
July 13, 2007
The fall of the dollar to 15-year lows isn't because there are too many subprime defaults -- it's because there are too many dollars.

FED SHADOW
Show Me
June 29, 2007
David Gitlitz
The Fed needs more proof that inflation has been tamed – and arbitrary core readings aren’t it.

MACROCOSM
Getting Real
June 18, 2007
The bear move in bonds has been about growth, not inflation. Bond bulls should brace for more bad news on both fronts.

MACROCOSM
When Doves Cry
June 8, 2007
Bill Gross brings up the rear of the capitulation parade. But it's just beginning -- bonds will have to brace for Fed rate hikes.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Jobs, ISM, GDP Data
June 1, 2007

MACROCOSM
Rodney Revisited
May 29, 2007
For four years, this expansion got no respect. What happens to stocks when it finally does?

MACROCOSM
Signals and Noises
May 17, 2007
Bond bulls are pummeled by evidence of reaccelerating growth, and grasp at statistical straws of supposedly benign inflation.

MACROCOSM
Retail No Relief for Economic Bears
May 11, 2007
Bonds have realized that the Fed isn't watching retails sales -- it's watching jobs.

MACROCOSM
Growth Returns in the Spring
May 3, 2007
After a dreary winter, the economic bears may have to stay in hibernation.

MACROCOSM
Soft Where?
April 27, 2007
David Gitlitz
There's still no evidence whatsoever of housing contagion, and lots more evidence of inflation.

MACROCOSM
March Madness
April 18, 2007
Bonds bulls will seize on anything -- even inflation statistics distorted by NCAA basketball.

FED SHADOW
Of Two Minds
April 12, 2007
Bernanke used to think low inflation was consistent with steady growth -- now it seems he can't decide between them.

MACROCOSM
A Haven From What?
April 5, 2007
Don't worry about Ahmadinejad. Worry about Bernanke.

MACROCOSM
Both Sides Now
March 28, 2007
Bernanke makes it crystal clear there are risks to both growth and inflation -- leaving inflation "predominant."

FED SHADOW
On Second Thought…
March 23, 2007
After Wednesday's knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC statement, a clearer appraisal.

MACROCOSM
What Would Say Say?
March 15, 2007
We're certain the 19th century economic prophet would be unperturbed by the current panic in subprime lending.

MACROCOSM
Risky Business
March 7, 2007
The market price of risk isn't zero anymore -- that's no threat to growth.

MACROCOSM
Carried Away
March 1, 2007
Solid growth statistics trump the long-expected closing of Japan's free money spigot.

MACROCOSM
Paper Tiger?
February 22, 2007
The Fed is being put on the spot to show it's not all talk.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bernanke's Testimony
February 14, 2007

MACROCOSM
Hawk Spotting
February 12, 2007
Bernanke's testimony this week should end all doubt that the next Fed move is to higher rates.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On GDP and FOMC
January 31, 2007

MACROCOSM
Keeping the Cheering Down
January 29, 2007
The Fed's been wrong about the slowing economy -- but they're unlikely to admit it at Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

MACROCOSM
Hoping Against Hope
January 19, 2007
Bond bulls cling to the instinct to buy on dips, but sentiment is beginning to change.

MACROCOSM
Commodities: Don't Be Fooled
January 12, 2007
The recent drop in commodities prices isn't an all clear signal for inflation, or for bond yields.

MACROCOSM
New Year, New Day?
January 4, 2007
But the Fed keeps the same hawkish bias, and bond markets still won't listen.

MACROCOSM
Inflation Flu
December 21, 2006
While the bond market denies US inflation, for Thailand it’s an all too familiar contagion.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On November CPI
December 15, 2006
David Gitlitz

MACROCOSM
Wishful Thinking Has Its Limits
December 13, 2006
Good economic news and a steady Fed will inexorably grind down the bond bulls.

MACROCOSM
Testing Bernanke
November 29, 2006
The bond market is ignoring Bernanke’s hawkish protestations, because for now it’s nothing but talk.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Inflation Mission Accomplished? Not So Fast
November 20, 2006
Seeming downticks in reported inflation are just counter-trend blips in a continuing uptrend.

MACROCOSM
We Won't Get Fooled Again?
November 6, 2006
The Fed admits its mistake about deflation in 2003 -- now it's the same mistake, but about inflation.

MACROCOSM
Better Than It Looks
October 30, 2006
Third quarter reported growth was dragged down by isolated factors likely not to repeat -- the expansion is still very much intact.

FED SHADOW
Fed Marking Time
October 26, 2006
The FOMC fiddles while inflation burns -- and bonds applaud.

MACROCOSM
What Landing?
October 20, 2006
An unexpectedly strong economy is set to disappoint the bond market on the upside.

MACROCOSM
Wake-Up Call
October 11, 2006
Bonds are rethinking the economy and the Fed. Next for rethinking: inflation.

MACROCOSM
Hoping Against Hope
October 5, 2006
The Fed is starting to aim tough talk at the bond market -- will the bond market listen?

MACROCOSM
Racing to the Cliff's Edge
September 21, 2006
Now more than ever, bonds are riding for a fall -- the economy isn't weakening and the Fed's not going to ease.

MACROCOSM
Dovish Day
September 15, 2006
Renewed conviction that inflation is dead hangs on a thread less than a hundredth of a percent thick.

MACROCOSM
Denial
September 5, 2006
Bond bulls are in the money -- but it's based on dreams, and reality is on the way.

MARKET CALLS
Update to Our US Bond Forecast
August 25, 2006
Bonds are very vulnerable: they're tracking Fed rhetoric, not reality.

MACROCOSM
Data Delusions for Doves
August 16, 2006
The Fed will spin this week's numbers to stay sidelined, but a closer look reveals continued growth and inflation.

FED SHADOW
Surprise on the Doveside
August 9, 2006
The Fed dug itself deeper in inflation denial yesterday, which raises the price the economy will have to pay tomorrow.

FED SHADOW
March to Folly
August 4, 2006
Today's job number seals the deal: the Fed is headed for a major error.

MACROCOSM
Data Dependent
July 27, 2006
Tomorrow's GDP report isn't likely to give Bernanke the excuse to stop the rate hikes.

MACROCOSM
Bernanke on the Hill
July 20, 2006
The Fed chief may hope the data will allow the rate hikes to stop, but there's one more coming.

MACROCOSM
The Middle East, Oil, Gold and the Fed
July 14, 2006
Geopolitical tensions are only adding insult to injury. The real risk is in monetary policy.

TRENDMACRO LIVE
On the June Employment Report
July 7, 2006

FED SHADOW
Fed Roulette
June 30, 2006
The FOMC wants it both ways on growth and inflation -- but its ambivalence puts both at risk.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
The Housing Cool-off In Perspective
June 22, 2006
A strong economy will keep the housing sector and the consumer from crashing.

MACROCOSM
The Hawk Has Landed
June 16, 2006
We can finally see the end of this rate-hiking cycle -- in time to address inflation risk without damage to growth.

FED SHADOW
Bernanke Arrives
June 6, 2006
An inflation-aware Fed will do the right thing for the right reason -- but still may get it wrong.

MACROCOSM
Right Thing, Wrong Reason?
June 1, 2006
The Fed gets it right again -- by accident. But the risk of major error is increasing.

MACROCOSM
Here We Go Again
May 23, 2006
Bonds are making yet another bad bet that the economy is slowing, and that the Fed is done.

MACROCOSM
Coming Home to Roost
May 18, 2006
New inflation awareness means that the Fed can do more sooner, and avoid doing too much later.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the FOMC Meeting
May 10, 2006

MACROCOSM
Lesson Learned?
May 3, 2006
Will the blowback from Bernanke's pause talk keep the Fed from damaging its credibility?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On April Jobs Data
May 5, 2006

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bernanke's Testimony
April 27, 2006

MACROCOSM
Another Reality Check
April 26, 2006
The market has reversed last week's false hopes, but it's still underestimating the extent of Fed action.

MACROCOSM
Sorry -- Still Not Done Yet
April 20, 2006
The Fed is still data-dependent, and all the data points to more rate hikes.

MACROCOSM
How Much More?
April 13, 2006
The equilibrium interest rate has moved higher -- so the Fed has much further to go than the market expects.

MACROCOSM
Gold, the Dollar, and the Fed
April 3, 2006
Gold may be caught up in a commodity boom, but it's also saying the Fed is still accommodative.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the FOMC Meeting
March 28, 2006

FED SHADOW
Learning Curve
March 21, 2006
Bernanke plumbs the yield curve's mysteries, but his economic outlook is clear -- and bad for bonds.

MACROCOSM
Catch Up
March 10, 2006
The big move down in bonds reflects both shifting Fed expectations and growing inflation worries.

MACROCOSM
No Restrictions 
March 2, 2006
It's good that there's nothing restrictive about a 5% funds rate -- because the Fed is going even higher.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
"Savings" vs. Wealth
February 22, 2006
Savings, in decline for two decades, is a sign of risk aversion. Wealth, at all time highs, is a sign of growth.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bernanke's Testimony
February 15, 2006

MACROCOSM
Return of the Long Bond
February 10, 2006
The 30-year gives bond investors a new way to mis-play the inverted yield curve.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the January Jobs Report 
February 3, 2006

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the FOMC Meeting
January 31, 2006

FED SHADOW
Arrivederci, Maestro
January 24, 2006
Greenspan's successors will have to live with a legacy of inflationary risk.

MACROCOSM
Slowdown?
January 19, 2006
The pessimists have been wrong all along, and they're still wrong.

MACROCOSM
Grasping At Straws
January 12, 2006
The rationales coming from the inflation doves don't hold up.

MACROCOSM
False Positive
January 3, 2006
Inverted yield curves don't cause recessions -- and this one isn't signaling one, either.

MACROCOSM
Different This Time?
December 22, 2005
Nope. Indeed, gold may be signaling the first synchronized global inflation event in over two decades.

FED SHADOW
Time for Change?
December 9, 2005
The Fed might be approaching neutrality, but that doesn't mean it's done.

MACROCOSM
No Respect
December 1, 2005
This expansion remains robust -- and its detractors are focusing on every risk except the relevant ones.

MACROCOSM
Gold at $490
November 22, 2005
Fears that a new Fed chair will let inflation break out here are overdone.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Core Inflation Not as Low as It Looks  
November 16, 2005
Statistical artifacts are holding down reported inflation. Soon those same artifacts will boost it.

MACROCOSM
Job Market Myth vs. Reality  
November 7, 2005
Jobs numbers can't prop up bonds -- but they may inspire the Fed to overshoot.

FED SHADOW
No Dove
November 1, 2005
The risk in a new Bernanke Fed is overshooting in the direction of tightness.

MACROCOSM
Bernanke Takes the Helm: Critical Questions
October 25, 2005
Inside the mind of the new Fed chair -- for better, and for worse.

MACROCOSM
Bonds Away
October 17, 2005
The Fed fooled bonds by treating high energy prices as inflationary, not contractionary.

MACROCOSM
High Anxiety
October 10, 2005
High energy prices are unlikely to derail an expansion based on wealth creation and capital formation.

MACROCOSM
Full Circle, and More
October 3, 2005
Fed rate hike expectations are above pre-Katrina levels -- so why is gold so high?

MACROCOSM
Neither Rain Nor Gloom 
September 23, 2005
Bond markets are only beginning to see that the Fed's normalization course will not be deterred.

FED SHADOW
Cat Out of the Bag?
September 19, 2005
Gold's inflation warning is too obvious for even the post-Katrina Fed to miss.

MACROCOSM
Grand Illusion
September 12, 2005
Bonds are captured by "money illusion" -- but the Fed is unlikely to play along.

FED SHADOW
Katrina and the Fed
September 2, 2005
Expectations that the Gulf Coast disaster will deter the Fed are all wet.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Housing Bubble Bunkum
August 16, 2005
If we've seen the best cast of the bubbleists, there's little to fear.

MACROCOSM
How Much Longer?
August 10, 2005
Markets are finally anticipating no Fed pauses this year -- but that may not be the end of the hiking cycle.

MACROCOSM
Straightening Out the Curve
August 1, 2005
As the economic gloom lifts, bonds face the music.

MACROCOSM
The Yuan Yawn
July 27, 2005
Bonds and the dollar refute the conventional take on the Chinese currency revaluation.

MACROCOSM
Strong Dollar?
July 14, 2005
Don't be fooled -- signals from the dollar and the CPI only seem benign.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On The June Jobs Report
July 8, 2005

MACROCOSM
Fine Fettle
July 1, 2005
Bond bulls retreat today as manufacturing defies the case for stagnation.

FED SHADOW
Greenspan's Conundrum
June 27, 2005
Oil prices put the Fed on notice: this is no time to be flirting with a less vigilant stance.

FED SHADOW
Fed, Still Behind the Curve
June 16, 2005
This month's seemingly strong dollar masks dangerous underlying weakness in Fed policy.

MACROCOSM
Hearing Impaired?
June 8, 2005
When Greenspan talks, bonds don't listen. Perhaps tomorrow he'll raise his voice.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Bond Reversal
June 3, 2005

MACROCOSM
Brave New World?
June 1, 2005
Bonds have mistakenly given up on growth -- but the Fed won't give up on rate hikes.

MACROCOSM
Just Chill!
May 17, 2005
Hedge fund panic mongers are trying to jawbone the Fed into a big mistake.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Money Supply Mishmash
May 11, 2005
The inflation-denying soft-patch brigade has found a new way to be wrong.

MACROCOSM
Stag No, Flation Yes
May 3, 2005
Thankfully, the Fed shows no sign of bowing to the pundits' scare stories.

MACROCOSM
Slowdown? Not So Fast!  
April 19, 2005
Misplaced fears of an economic slowdown increase the risk that inflation will speed up.

MACROCOSM
Hope Springs Eternal
April 13, 2005
Wishful thinking in the bond market won't keep rates from heading higher.

MACROCOSM
Onward to Normality 
April 4, 2005
The bond market just isn't listening if it believes the Fed is going to slow down.

MACROCOSM
About Time
March 23, 2005
The Fed finally awakens to the inflation threat -- and in time to remain "measured."

FED SHADOW
The Fed's Oil Slick
March 21, 2005
Record crude prices mean a monetary mistake could be not just dumb, but disastrous.

MACROCOSM
The Conundrum Unravels
March 15, 2005
Bond yields are finally getting back into line with the rest of the world's markets.

MACROCOSM
Is Greenspan Getting It?
March 8, 2005
Still oblique, but Greenspan's inflation warnings are getting louder and clearer.

MACROCOSM
Reality Check
February 28, 2005
As the evidence mounts, inflationary risks are becoming impossible for the Fed -- or the bond market -- to deny.

MACROCOSM
Dollar to Greenspan: "Show Me"
February 22, 2005
Even bonds are beginning to see that a "measured" course isn't enough for the Fed.

MACROCOSM
Bonds: Is This the Turn?
February 11, 2005
Bonds may have finally passed their apogee of irrationality.

MACROCOSM
Calm Before the Storm
Friday, February 4, 2005
Fixed income markets are taking false comfort from the Fed's boilerplate.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Fourth Quarter GDP
Friday, January 28, 2005

MACROCOSM
It Doesn't Follow
January 26, 2005
If Wall Street doves have their way, even higher inflation will be the result.

MACROCOSM
Risking the Spread
January 12, 2005
The junk spread can't get much narrower, and the curve won't get much flatter.

MACROCOSM
A Dollar Rally?
January 4, 2005
Surprise, surprise! Prospects for a reality-based Fed are helping firm up the dollar.

FED SHADOW
Retro Maestro?
December 20, 2004
There's a growing number of clues that Alan Greenspan may be listening to price-signals again.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Dollar and Deficits: Fables, Fallacies and Foolishness
December 13, 2004
The conventional wisdom is always wrong -- but when it comes to the dollar, it's dangerously wrong.

MACROCOSM
Slippery Slope
December 6, 2004
How much worse will the Fed let inflation risks get? And when will bonds take notice?

FED SHADOW
Passing the Buck
November 22, 2004
There's one man in the world who can save the falling dollar -- and he won't do it.

FED SHADOW
Anybody Home?
November 15, 2004
There's a lot of talk about the dollar now -- all of it dangerous, and none of it right.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
FOMC Alert
November 10, 2004

MACROCOSM
Perfect Pitch
November 5, 2004
Bush struts his stuff, and the market applauds.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Third Quarter GDP
October 29, 2004

FED SHADOW
Dollar Delusions
October 26, 2004
It looks like the Fed may have found a new reason to stay too easy for too long.

MACROCOSM
Barreling Along
October 15, 2004
The bad news is that oil is at $55. The good news is that the Fed isn't panicking.

MACROCOSM
Scary Kerry?
October 8, 2004
Markets are assessing the dangerous interaction of a Kerry win and a Fed mistake.

MACROCOSM
Bonds: Sell 'Em While They're Hot
October 1, 2004
A mere data revision triggered a bond market rout -- and there are more revisions ahead.

MACROCOSM
Bond Illusions
September 23, 2004
At 4%, bonds are priced on fantasies that growth is slowing and that the Fed is fighting inflation.

FED SHADOW
Rude Awakening?
September 20, 2004
At these yields, the bond market needs the FOMC to be a lot gloomier than it's likely to be.

MACROCOSM
A Girlie Man Economy?
September 9, 2004
Hardly. Politicized pessimism notwithstanding, animal spirits are very much alive and well.

MACROCOSM
Bond Market Riddle
September 2, 2004
Does misplaced economic pessimism explain mispriced bonds?

MACROCOSM
Risks to Expansion: Reality or Spin?
August 20, 2004
Today's pessimism is due more to media bias than to economic fundamentals.

MACROCOSM
Oil: The Fed's Slippery Slope
August 11, 2004
The bond market is wrong if it thinks that oil is doing the Fed's tightening job for it.

FED SHADOW
FOMC Preview
August 9, 2004
Greenspan won't take a pass tomorrow -- but that's where the certainty ends.

MACROCOSM
Inflation: That '70s Show?
August 2, 2004
The Fed now has several new reasons to make old inflationary mistakes.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On June CPI
Friday, July 16, 2004

MACROCOSM
No Bail-Out for Bonds
July 13, 2004
A growth plateau won't save bonds from rising inflation and a behind-the-curve Fed.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June FOMC Meeting
June 28, 2004

FED SHADOW
FOMC Preview
June 28, 2004
Gold tells the tale the Fed would rather be left unsaid.

FED SHADOW
Good News?
June 16, 2004
Small improvements in reported inflation only open the door for large policy error.

MACROCOSM
High Risk for High Yield
June 3, 2004
Junk bonds could soon face a double-headwind from inflation and Fed rate hikes.

FED SHADOW
Surprises in Store
May 27, 2004
"Gradualism" means the Fed is not so gradually falling behind the inflationary curve.

MACROCOSM
$40 Crude
May 19, 2004
This isn't the 1970s -- today's oil prices don't have to be an obstacle to expansion.

MACROCOSM
What's Up With Gold?
May 11, 2004
Does the drop in gold mean an end to inflationary risk? Not by a long shot.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the FOMC Statement
May 4, 2004

FED SHADOW
Clear and Present
April 29, 2004
Everyone seems to know the Fed is raising rates. But does the Fed?

MARKET CALLS
On March CPI
April 19, 2004
Bonds face the reality of the awakening of a long-slumbering Fed.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On March CPI
April 14, 2004

FED SHADOW
Clinging
April 12, 2004
Even after March's terrific jobs report, the Fed still just doesn't get it.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the March Jobs Report
April 2, 2004

FED SHADOW
What’s He Thinking?
March 29, 2004
Alan Greenspan wants inflation. The problem is: he's going to get more than he's bargaining for.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the FOMC Statement
March 16, 2004

MACROCOSM
Healing Old Wounds, Inflicting New Ones
March 15, 2004
A too-tight Fed ended the boom. A too-easy one won't bring it back.

MACROCOSM
Dollar Rally: What It Is, and What It Isn’t
March 4, 2004
The dollar move suggests only that we might avoid the worst-case inflationary scenario.

MARKET CALLS
A "Real" Dollar Rally? Don’t Bank On It
February 19, 2004
Until the Fed reverses its inflationary course, the dollar is headed nowhere but lower.

INTELLECTUAL AMMO
Output Gap Fallacies
February 6, 2004
Another jobs report, another bad excuse for the Fed's flirtation with disaster.

FED SHADOW
Good News, Bad News
January 29, 2004
The Fed takes a step in the direction of sanity -- if only a small one.

FED SHADOW
Don’t Worry, Be Happy?
January 27, 2004
Is the Fed inevitably facing the constraints of reality?

MACROCOSM
Dollar, Euro, Gold, Fed, ECB
January 20, 2004
For all the fireworks last week, one truth remains: the Fed is too easy.

MARKET CALLS
Bond Bubble Sure To Burst, But When? 
January 13, 2004
A questionable jobs number has given the bond market a questionable reprieve.

TREND MACRO LIVE!
On Bernanke 
Monday, January 5, 2004

MACROCOSM
So Much To Lose
December 23, 2003
The economy's robust health highlights the potential being put at risk by the Fed.

FED SHADOW
Saddam's Not Enough
December 15, 2003
Geopolitical/military risk is one thing -- and monetary risk is another.

FED SHADOW
Further Behind the Curve
December 8, 2003
The jobs report can only reinforce the Fed's increasing recklessness.

POLITICAL PULSE
Errors All Around
December 4, 2003
Since the tax cuts, the administration's policy moves have given markets little to cheer.

FED SHADOW
Betting on Sanity
November 21, 2003
Markets think that the Fed isn't going to be quite as reckless as its rhetoric.

FED SHADOW
See No Evil
November 14, 2003
If the Fed refuses to learn from inflationary history, are we doomed to repeat it?

MACROCOSM
Another Virtuous Cycle 
November 6, 2003
It's not just one great quarter. The economy's growth engine has been turned back on.

FED SHADOW
Desperately Seeking Inflation?
October 29, 2003
David Gitlitz
Markets will have to deal with the possibility that Greenspan isn't just blind to inflation -- he actually wants it.

FED SHADOW
FOMC: Moment of Truth
October 27, 2003
Tomorrow's policy meeting could be pivotal in determining whether inflation risk becomes inflation reality.

FED SHADOW
Disinflation: Public Face vs Private Reality
October 20, 2003
Surely the Fed must at least privately acknowledge the evidence that disinflation is over. Now -- will they act?

MACROCOSM
Forex Folly
October 13, 2003
Stubborn inflation risks point to the dangers of the administration's currency gambit.

MACROCOSM
Back From the Inflationary Brink
October 6, 2003
Evidence of jobs recovery may save the Fed from an all-too-familiar policy error.

MARKET CALLS
Treasuries: Face the Inevitable
October 2, 2003
Accelerating growth and inflation risk mean that Treasuries are headed for a big fall.

MACROCOSM
IPOs Say Go 
September 30, 2003
The talk remains gloomy -- but the encouraging action in IPOs and high-yield debt speaks louder than words.

MACROCOSM
Dangerous Game
September 23, 2003
Treasury's ill-advised shift to an "activist" dollar policy carries potentially ominous domestic and international implications. 

FED SHADOW
Gold at $380
September 10, 2003
The Fed's confused belief that its role is to regulate the labor market is again putting monetary risk in play.

MACROCOSM
August Jobs Report -- What It Doesn’t Mean
September 5, 2003
A grim-looking labor market doesn't directly threaten the expansion, but carries risks of its own.

MACROCOSM
Labor, Capital, Confusion
September 2, 2003
Productivity is not the enemy of job creation -- it is indispensable to it.

MACROCOSM
Japan's Reflation Clouded By Doubt
August 26, 2003
The conventional wisdom expects Japanese recovery -- but the dangerous dynamics of deflation may still be very much alive.

FED SHADOW
Is This What They Had In Mind?
August 18, 2003
The Fed has allowed long-submerged inflation risks to resurface, but appears unlikely to allow the risk to become reality.

FED SHADOW
FOMC Preview 
August 11, 2003
Tomorrow's meeting should bring early hints of a forthcoming policy change.

MACROCOSM
Short Rates Take the Long View
August 1, 2003
Today's data was a mixed bag, but short rates continue to forecast resurgent growth.

MACROCOSM
The Great Unwinding
July 31, 2003
Don't fret. This bond market blow-back is overwhelmingly good news.

MACROCOSM
Flies in the Ointment
July 18, 2003
The growth case is compelling, but the markets are pausing to consider the risks.

MARKET CALLS
Betting on Growth
July 11, 2003
The financial markets appear poised for a significant growth rebound, but interest rate futures are lagging behind.

MARKET CALLS
JGB Sell-Off: The Real Deal?
July 3, 2003
Japanese government bonds take a tumble, but without monetary reflation, they may not have much further to go.

MARKET CALLS
Bond Market Blow-Off
June 20, 2003
Treasuries are finally starting to get real about growth prospects and inflation risk.

FED SHADOW
How Much Room?
June 11, 2003
How much longer will the Fed be able to court inflation risk as it fights a non-existent deflation?

MACROCOSM
Deflation, Reflation, Exasperation
May 27, 2003
Widespread misunderstanding of today's deflation threat may be as dangerous as deflation itself. 

MACROCOSM
Currency Confusion
May 19, 2003
John Snow's loose lips rocked the boat, but the Fed is the captain of the dollar's fate.

MACROCOSM
Gettin' While the Gettin's Good
May 9, 2003
The Fed's talk about deflation has delayed the day of reckoning for long Treasuries.

FED SHADOW
Clear Opacity
May 7, 2003
A muddled Fed contemplates applying monetary solutions to non-monetary problems.

POLITICAL PULSE
Down Payment on a Miracle
May 5, 2003
Bush's tax cuts went to the House, and are coming out better than ever. But the Senate's another matter.

MACROCOSM
Stirrings
April 24, 2003
The market's awakening isn't about last quarter's earnings -- it's about the gradual return of the preconditions for growth.

POLITICAL PULSE
Half a Loaf?
April 17, 2003
The shape of possible tax-cut compromise is beginning to emerge from the fog of legislative war.

MARKET CALLS
A Bounce for Gold
April 9, 2003
With war-fear trades unwound and the Fed still committed to fighting deflation, gold has more upside than downside.

MACROCOSM
Better Than It Looks
April 4, 2003
Warning: data in the rear-view mirror is smaller than it appears.

MACROCOSM
Perspective
March 31, 2003
Markets have been a lot more resilient than embedded Wall Street pundits appreciate.

MARKET CALLS
Good Things
March 21, 2003
It's time for the recovery of risk tolerance, and that means more bad news for Treasuries.

MACROCOSM
Jobs, Uncertainty and the Fed
March 10, 2003
Will the Fed fall into the inflationary trap of using monetary policy to deal with non-monetary problems.

MACROCOSM
Bond Blowback
March 4, 2003
Iraq risk has been kind to Treasuries -- but what happens after that risk is resolved?

NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE
Iraq & the Stock Market
February 26, 2003
Prompt military action will send indexes upward.

POLITICAL PULSE
Lifting the Fog of War
February 19, 2003
Markets are not comforted by deferring the decision to go to war -- markets want resolution, and that's probably not far away.

MACROCOSM
The Brightening Capex Outlook
February 11, 2003
The recession's signature malady -- depressed capital investment -- is quietly beginning to turn around.

FED SHADOW
The Too-Big Easy?
January 31, 2003
There's no inflationary impulse in the Fed's accommodative stance -- yet. But it's time to start watching.

MACROCOSM
Upside, Downside
January 23, 2003
A market addicted to bad news is overlooking some fundamental positives.

MACROCOSM
The Curse of Rubinomics
January 15, 2003
The dead hand of Clinton-era economic fallacies puts Bush's tax package at risk. 

POLITICAL PULSE
Born-Again Growth Advocacy
January 8, 2003
Bush's stodgy tax plan is blossoming into an important pro-growth initiative.

MACROCOSM
Gameplan for the New Year
January 6, 2003
A macro view of the major US asset classes, and a new Model Position in bonds.

MACROCOSM
Bush's Tax Cuts: Curb Your Enthusiasm
January 2, 2003
Hopes for pro-growth tax policy initiatives are worse than dead -- they've never even been born.

FED SHADOW
Gold's Wild Ride
December 20, 2002
It's for sure now -- both gold and Greenspan are telling us unambiguously that the Fed "gets it" on deflation.

POLITICAL PULSE
A Lott for Markets to Think About
December 16, 2002
There are both big positives and big negatives that could emerge from the Lott crisis -- while we wait, there's big uncertainty.

MACROCOSM
Good as Gold
December 13, 2002
Stocks were spooked by deflation fears today, but signals from gold and the dollar say "don't worry."

POLITICAL PULSE
Why Bother?
December 9, 2002
Bush's selection of Snow and Friedman dashes hopes that the administration will adopt a strong pro-growth policy agenda.

MACROCOSM
Japan: Here We Go Again
December 4, 2002
Japan's anti-deflationary efforts remain mired in politics and incompetence.

MACROCOSM
Monetary Progress, Fiscal Stasis
November 25, 2002
The Fed may not know what deflation is, but they know how to fight it. Sadly, the GOP neither knows what growth is, nor how to stimulate it.

MACROCOSM
A Deflation Dichotomy
November 18, 2002
The Fed's finally fighting deflation -- but if deflation is already subsiding, then they're making a whole new world of risk.

FED SHADOW
Better Late Than Never
November 8, 2002
Fed minutes show policymakers grappling with the specter of deflation risk.

MACROCOSM
Help is on the Way?
October 31, 2002
The market's betting that the FOMC will cut rates next week. Here's why the market isn't more thrilled about that.

MACROCOSM
Resistance
October 21, 2002
The stock market may be "cheap," but deflationary risk and systemic risk-aversion are making it tough to capture the value.

MARKET CALLS
Godzilla Meets Bambi
October 15, 2002
Capital markets priced for the worst are reacting well to a little good news.

FED SHADOW
Monetary Hall of Mirrors
October 11, 2002
If monetary policy is the easiest it's been in 40 years, why isn't the Fed adding liquidity?

MACROCOSM
The Tech Depression: Will It Never End?
October 8, 2002
The high-tech investment meltdown shows little sign of easing, with risk premiums remaining at prohibitive levels.

MARKET CALLS
What's Ahead for Bonds?
September 27, 2002
The pressure driving up long Treasuries is abating -- but so far there's no pressure for them to come back down.

MACROCOSM
A Lopsided Economy
September 16, 2002
Both risk and risk-aversion continue to run high, and even Alan Greenspan is silent as an anemic recovery muddles on.

MACROCOSM
911: Why It Matters, Why It Doesn't
September 11, 2002
Understanding the macroeconomic impacts of 911 -- real and imagined, economic and political.

MACROCOSM
NY Minutes: Valuation and Deflation -- No Elation
September 4, 2002
We didn't meet one bull on Wall Street last week, yet equity values are attractive and deflationary pressures are under control.

FED SHADOW
The Reality Trade
August 19, 2002
The FOMC's bias shift offers little support to a market over-extended on rate-cut expectations.

FED SHADOW
FOMC Blues
August 12, 2002
The same Wall Street economists who expected the Fed to tighten last spring are going to be disappointed all over again -- when the Fed doesn’t ease.

MACROCOSM
Muddling Through
August 6, 2002
It wasn’t as good as everyone hoped in the first quarter. So it’s not as bad as everyone fears now.

MACROCOSM
Dollar Dynamics
July 29, 2002
The dollar’s appreciation against forex and gold might be just a technical phenomenon -- or it could mean that monetary deflation’s not quite dead.

POLITICAL PULSE
Looking More and More Like Bush 1.0
July 19, 2002
Like his father, President Bush doesn't seem to have "the vision thing" when it comes to the economy and the markets.

FED SHADOW
Greenspan Still On Hold
July 16, 2002
Greenspan may be "upbeat," but that doesn't mean rates are going up any time soon.

MARKET CALLS
A Techless Recovery?
July 10, 2002