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DG CAPITAL ADVISORS CLIENT MEMORANDA
Flash: Greenspan Speech
December 5, 2000
David Gitlitz
Alan Greenspan
accomplished his objective today of transmitting the message that the
central bank has finally come to terms with the growing deterioration in
real-world economic and financial conditions. He could hardly have done
less. Even while conceding the obvious weakening, Greenspan artfully avoided
acknowledgement that the slowdown is in large measure the intended result of
the Fed's adherence to an archaic model which divines a "sustainable"
rate of expansion by positing an illusory tradeoff between growth and
inflation. The Fed will now shift its focus to undoing the damage done by a
year's worth of wholly unjustified rate increases, but at some point, one
would hope, the Fed chairman might be compelled to answer an obvious
question: What was the point of all this? Greenspan's attempt to gloss over
the central bank's culpability for the current state of affairs reached a
high (low?) point with his cajoling of the nation's bankers to maintain a
steady flow of credit in the face of the heightened default risks engendered
by the Fed itself. "Though lenders will be viewing new transactions with
greater caution than they did a couple of years ago, both bankers and their
supervisors should now guard against allowing the pendulum to swing too far
the other way by adopting policy stances that cut off credit to borrowers
with credible prospects," Greenspan -- apparently with a straight face --
told attendees at the New York conference of America's Community
Bankers. For all that, though, we'll take it. A series of easing steps
beginning in January, totaling as much as 50 basis points by the end of the
first quarter and 100 bps by June, now appears to be the most likely policy
course.
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