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Flash: Greenspan Speech
December 5, 2000
David Gitlitz

Alan Greenspan accomplished his objective today of transmitting the message that the central bank has finally come to terms with the growing deterioration in real-world economic and financial conditions. He could hardly have done less. Even while conceding the obvious weakening, Greenspan artfully avoided acknowledgement that the slowdown is in large measure the intended result of the Fed's adherence to an archaic model which divines a "sustainable" rate of expansion by positing an illusory tradeoff between growth and inflation. The Fed will now shift its focus to undoing the damage done by a year's worth of wholly unjustified rate increases, but at some point, one would hope, the Fed chairman might be compelled to answer an obvious question: What was the point of all this? Greenspan's attempt to gloss over the central bank's culpability for the current state of affairs reached a high (low?) point with his cajoling of the nation's bankers to maintain a steady flow of credit in the face of the heightened default risks engendered by the Fed itself. "Though lenders will be viewing new transactions with greater caution than they did a couple of years ago, both bankers and their supervisors should now guard against allowing the pendulum to swing too far the other way by adopting policy stances that cut off credit to borrowers with credible prospects," Greenspan -- apparently with a straight face -- told attendees at the New York conference of America's Community Bankers. For all that, though, we'll take it. A series of easing steps beginning in January, totaling as much as 50 basis points by the end of the first quarter and 100 bps by June, now appears to be the most likely policy course.


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